Sahm Rule recession indicator
Claudia Sahm’s published real-time unemployment indicator; the reference threshold is 0.50 percentage points.
-0.07 pp
Loading interactive chart. Source observations are available in the CSV download.
Sahm Rule recession indicator: -0.07 pp for Aug 2026; −0.04 pp versus Jul 2026. 127 observations beginning Jan 1, 2016. Downloaded Sep 27, 2026 from FRED. Values may be revised by the source.